Republs, Here’s Why You Can Not Win Back The White House. If You Disagree, Tell Me Why (long Question)?
I’d like to take this by a few key states and demographs:
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico: Always leaning democratic, the 2008 election solidified these states as permanent blues.
Ohio, Missouri, Indiana: Swing states with rising black population. I assure you, republicans, you will NOT carry the black vote, and the minority population is rising faster than the caucasion population. Soon, the minority population will make this solidly blue.
Virginia, North Carolina Georgia and South Carolina: Newest swing states, rising black population. Again, each democratic candidate for president has carried the black vote by at least 80 percent since 1960.
Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada: Always swing states, but rising hispanic population via birth rate plus permanent residents becoming citizens thus gaining voting rights. Political strategists are in consensus that repubs need at least 40 percent of the hispanic vote to have a shot. Right now, your not even close. These states will be leaning blue in the future, and Obama lost Arizona solely because it is McCain’s state.
The US Census Burreu has predicted that by 2050 there will be no majority race, and I cannot imagine the scenario where your going to win without the minority, particularly the hispanic, vote.
Also keep in mind that this is a trending blue nation. Trust me on that, I live in Virginia, and I never thought I’d see the day. But in 2008, you know what happened. And when you give the democratic candidate their solidly blue states (The John Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico) they have 260 of the 270 needed to win right there. All they need to do is win ONE of the swing states mentioned, whereas the republican would have to win ALL of them.
So, your strategy? Since being anti-Obama isn’t helping you among the demographs that decide the election?
Because a recent poll shows that 45% of US citizens consider themselves conservative.
Because most people did not vote Republican in the last couple of elections because they were upset that they were spending like drunk Democrats and were behaving like Democrat lite. If people didn’t like the spending Republicans did how do you think they will react to Barrack Hussein Obama Mm Mm Mm and the Democrats quadrupeling the deficit?!
Because Barrack Hussein Obama promised that if the so called stimulus were passed that unemployment would not go above 8%. National unemployment is currently at 9.8%, with 4 states and 120 cities at double digit unemployment.
Because both of the Democrat controlled houses have historical low approval numbers.
Because 55% of Americans are against health care reform and yet Democrats are working to cram it down our throats.
Because only 23% of Americans strongly approve of Barrack Hussein Obamas Mm Mm Mm policies while 45% strongly disagree.
Plastic Nancy Pelosi has approval lower than even Bush had.
Harry Reid’s re-election is in serious trouble as are many other Democrats.
When Barrack Hussein Obama took office Democrats had double digit leads over Republicans in the generic ballot. In just 9 months Republicans now lead Democrats by double digits in the generic ballot.
Because Barrack Hussein Obama Mm Mm Mm has spent more time golfing in 9 months than Bush did in 8 years! Where are all the Democrats who went into convultions because they thought Bush golfed too much?! Are you actually that big a hypocrits?!
Because Barrack Hussein Obamas Mm Mm Mm general asked for more troops in August and he still has not receive them!
Do you need more or can you see what an utter failure Barrack Hussein Obama Mm Mm Mm and the Democrats are?!
Your analysis is basically right. So what are Republicans doing to counter the trend. They are making these trends 10 times worse by pissing off every moderate swing voter they can. But this isn’t a strategy. It is the absence of a strategy. The vocal far right has become the only voice of the party, with the remaining sane portion of the party remaining silent.
To say any state is solidly red or blue is foolish.
You never know what will happen with the politics in this country.
BTW Im from Virginia and the Republicans are ahead right now.
You never really know how the tides will turn.
Good one Kreskin. The problem is that this is not currently a trending blue nation. It is swinging to the right. Watch what happens next week. Just saying.
Tea-parties.
Agreed. Box them in with a fence.
The last 3 months of Bush and Obama fiscal policy will completely bankrupt the US in the later years (2020 and beyond). Europe and Japan have become significantly more free market oriented and India has proven that the free market cleans the water and feeds the children. You can go on an on about how there are going to be less whites around, but you are distorted by your own race bias. The country will realize as Europe has that the massive entitlement state doesn’t work, and as we pay the majority of our income to pay for bailouts and huge entitlement in the later years, I believe we will realize what works and what does not. A year ago it looked like a lot of purple states turned blue, but look at the current gubernatorial elections, the GOP is favored to win in some very blue states. Ideas that work will win in the end.
Your Hispanic theory does not hold water because many of them are anti-Abortion Catholics. They don’t traditionally vote, but they’re so up in arms about Obama’s abortion ideas that they’ll be out in force come next election.
New Mexico is on your list as a confirmed blue state, but I live in New Mexico, and it went red during Bush’s second election. The people down here are so seriously under-educated that they don’t even understand why they’re voting for who they’re voting for; all they know is what they see on the news. A good half of the population of this state wouldn’t know their own politics from a hole in the ground.
Obama lost Arizona because it is a REPUBLICAN state, like it or not. I know far too many Arizonans to think of it as a liberal state, period. Pima County is a blue county; the rest of the state is red. If that weren’t true, Joe Arpaio would have lost three of his last four elections.
And lastly, check out the three gubernatorial races right now that are going overwhelmingly red in traditionally blue areas.
I think you’re in for a sobering revelation in 2010, my friend.
Repubs strategy: Sell jobs, strong foreign policy, and personal gain. The repubs may not traditionally have the “black vote” but they have quite a bit more of it than one might think. And let’s face it Hispanics are a bit more supportive of a gov’t that gets out of the way than most people realized. Most immigrants don’t want stuff handed to them on a silver platter they want to earn it. So if the GOP backs up off tough immigration policy but simultaneously steps up and trys to take down welfare. They’ll be sitting pretty.
Part 2, run a man who can win either NY, FL, or CA. With one of those states (because TX is in the bag) the GOP wins. I’m thinking maybe Guilianni (might have spelled it wrong).
Part 3, distance yourself from the religious right. Emphasize the right of people to choose their own religion and emphasize certain things to keep the rr happy but do not sell out.
Part 4, Get someone who is brutally honest. The media is gonna go after your candidate even if the GOP candidate was Obama himself. Simply for the fact that it’s the GOP. So get someone who is refreshingly honest, not only to counter that but so that you don’t have to have the man try to eat his words earlier.
Part 5, Make the biggest issue in the next election about debt. Sell it as something we need to do for our children (which is coincidentally true). You need a platform that will ring true to people and is fundamentally opposed to the Liberal agenda. Sell it like, “We can either pay for it now with these cuts or our children can pay for it with their jobs and careers.”
Part 6, Go Open Source. Get the FOSS Internet crew on your side. This is one of the biggest voting blocks in the nation and it zero love from the Dems who are in bed with RIAA. Bring Torvalds on the campaign trail and you just earned yourself another 100,000 votes while saving money (main thing debt).
Part 7, Bring the Small Buisness Owners into play. Promise to break up trusts and to create programs and policies to help SBO’s grow.
Part 8, Get the rich on your side. Promise not lower taxes but simpler taxes. Create a tax system that so simple millionaires don’t have to pay someone 200,000 dollars to do their taxes.
It is like this. We had this situation before. Here is how it went. Jimmy Carter was an overreaching Liberal who destroyed the economy, weakened the military and refused to listen to the will of the people, just like Barack Obama is doing. After four years, it was election time.
Ronald Reagan was seen as a dopey old man who could not stand a chance. The Left loved making fun of his movie career especially is “Bonzo” series of “B” movies where he played opposite a chimpanzee.
Then came election night. Reagan won the election, carrying 44 states with 489 electoral votes to 49 electoral votes for Carter.
That’s how it happened then, that is how it is going to happen in 2012.
Reagan ran for reelection in 1984. Reagan was re-elected, winning 49 of 50 states. Why? Because America is not a Liberal Country.
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Politics is cyclical. since the end of WW II, the democrats have had the White House 28 years, the Republicans 36 years! That means the Republicans have been in power 56% of the time!
The problem has always been that total power is corrupting, and the way 0bama’s presidency is going, it will take a miracle for him to retain power, even after Nov. 2010.
The American people already see the folly in a democratic led government, and it will ready to try something different, it always has !